After several weeks of widespread severe weather, this week's pattern takes a modest step back.

Severe Weather Activity Slows, but Key Storm Risks Remain Across the Northeast and Great Lakes

The latest Extreme Weather Insights forecast for July 13–19 calls for a more typical mid-July setup, with quieter periods interrupted by a few notable severe weather events. While hail season continues to wind down, damaging winds remain the dominant threat across much of the country.

This week's forecast earns an Extreme Weather Insights Score of 5/10, reflecting near-average storm activity with several targeted opportunities for roofing and restoration professionals.

Last Week: Wind Continued to Dominate

Last week's forecast carried a 7/10 activity score and delivered another active stretch of severe weather.

Storms produced:

  • 1,200+ damaging wind reports

  • 20 tornadoes

  • 85 hail reports

  • 5 reports of hail exceeding two inches

While large hail was limited primarily to the Dakotas and Nebraska, damaging wind once again proved to be the season's biggest story.

Wind reports continue running well above historical averages, reinforcing the growing importance of monitoring wind damage—not just hail—as contractors identify new opportunities.

Meanwhile, total hail reports remain below the 15-year average and are expected to finish the season approximately 300–500 reports below normal, barring a particularly active late-summer hail season.

A Quiet Start to the Week

Monday begins unusually calm for mid-July.

Outside of scattered thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast and isolated storms near Dallas, much of the central United States and Northeast remain quiet.

Unlike previous weeks, there are no widespread severe weather outlooks to begin the week.

Tuesday: New England Becomes the Focus

The most significant severe weather of the week arrives Tuesday across the Northeast.

Areas including:

  • Vermont

  • New Hampshire

  • Maine

  • Upstate New York

could experience:

  • Large hail

  • Damaging winds

  • Isolated tornadoes

Forecasters are even highlighting the potential for very large hail in portions of northern New England, making Tuesday the week's highest-confidence severe weather event.

Wednesday Shifts Into Major Population Centers

On Wednesday, storm activity shifts south into densely populated portions of the Northeast.

Markets to monitor include:

  • Pennsylvania

  • New Jersey

  • New York City

  • Long Island

  • Connecticut

  • Massachusetts

While widespread outbreaks are not expected, damaging winds and scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across this busy population corridor.

Thursday Offers a Rare Break

Thursday stands out as one of the quietest forecast days seen in several weeks.

No significant severe weather areas are currently highlighted, offering a temporary pause before activity returns heading into the weekend.

Weekend Focus Returns to the Great Lakes and Eastern U.S.

Storm chances increase again beginning Friday.

The Upper Midwest and Great Lakes become the primary focus, with severe weather possible around:

  • Twin Cities

  • Chicago

  • Milwaukee

  • Indianapolis

Meanwhile, recurring damaging wind threats continue across the Carolinas and portions of the Eastern Seaboard.

That same pattern is expected to persist through Saturday and Sunday, with repeated rounds of thunderstorms capable of producing localized wind damage.

Unlike spring and early summer, these late-season storms are expected to be driven more by damaging winds than significant hail.

What Roofing and Restoration Companies Should Watch

Although this week's activity is less widespread than previous forecasts, several markets remain worth monitoring.

Tuesday

  • Vermont

  • New Hampshire

  • Maine

  • Upstate New York

Wednesday

  • Pennsylvania

  • New Jersey

  • New York City

  • Long Island

  • Connecticut

  • Massachusetts

Friday

  • Twin Cities

  • Chicago

  • Milwaukee

  • Indianapolis

Weekend

  • Great Lakes

  • Carolinas

  • Eastern Seaboard

Bottom Line

This week's forecast marks the transition toward a more typical midsummer severe weather pattern.

Large hail events are becoming less frequent, while damaging wind continues to drive storm impacts across the country. Even with a lower overall activity score, several highly populated regions remain at risk for severe weather during the week.

For roofing contractors and restoration teams, staying focused on wind-driven events may prove just as valuable as tracking hail as the season progresses.